Eyecare Continues to Evolve: Here’s What We Expect for 2024

Introduction

We’ve seen a significant evolution in the delivery of eyecare services and sales of eyewear products over the past five years. This period has been marked by significant shifts in market dynamics, technological advancements, and changing consumer preferences. As the year ends, it’s a good time to look back and review the industry growth trends and patterns that have shaped the current landscape of the vision industry.

Using historical results allows us to also look forward and forecast what is most likely to happen in the near future. Forecasting is a crucial tool for you as a stakeholder in the vision industry as it provides a roadmap of what you can expect in terms of market growth and potential challenges. Predicting growth levels in key categories can guide you in planning your business strategies effectively, enable you to allocate resources efficiently, and prepare you for changes in consumer demand.

Methods

Drawing data from a representative sample of 2,250 ECP locations distributed across the US in the GPN dataset we tracked unit sales over four key categories: eye exams, contact lenses, ophthalmic lenses and frames. We looked back by quarter beginning with Q3 2020 until Q3 2023. For each quarter, we compared the change in unit sales from the previous year, same quarter. We used exponential smoothing, a statistical time-series method to review past patterns to estimate future outcomes. 

As we are looking back 12 months to compare and report quarter growth, the timeline begins with actual results from Q3 2021.  The percentage change in units transacted for the same quarter one year earlier is displayed and the forecasted growth over the ensuing 5 quarters is predicted.

Results

Let's first review the historic results before describing the forecast.

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Historical Trends and Insights

The 9-quarter historic analysis period from Q3 2021 to Q3 2023 follows the downs and ups of the pandemic and recovery. Combining all categories, the average change was highest at 2.24% growth over prior year in Q1, averaged 1.12% in Q2, 0.81% in Q3 and 1.41% in Q4. Q1 and Q4 were stronger quarters for exams and lenses, but weak quarters for contacts. Frames appear to have weak Q2 but recover in other quarters.

Results By Category

Exams:

Over all quarters, exams averaged 3.33% growth over prior year. The highest quarterly change over same quarter 12 months earlier occurred in Q1 2023, growing 6.89% over Q1 2022 exams. The minimum growth quarter was 1.34% in Q3 2023.

Contacts:

The percentage change in contacts peaked in Q1 2022 (5.38%) and was lowest, with negative change (-2.03%) in Q3 2023. The average change for contact lenses with this sample was 2.85%.

Frames:

Frames averaged 0.35% change over the 9 quarters. Quarterly frame growth was highest in Q3 2021 (2.65%) and the lowest point occurred in Q2 2022 (-4.10%). 

Lenses:

Quarterly growth in lenses was highest at 4.82% in Q1 2023 and lowest in Q2 2022 at -3.79%. The sample average change for lenses during was 0.65% across all quarters.

Results By Quarter

• Q3 2021:

  • Max Change Category: Contacts with 3.12%.

  • Min Change Category: Lenses with 2.34%.

  • The combined average of all categories for this quarter was 2.78%.

• Q4 2021:

  • Max Change Category: Contacts with 4.03%.

  • Min Change Category: Lenses with 0.90%.

  • The combined average of all categories for this quarter was 2.40%.

• Q1 2022:

  • Max Change Category: Contacts with 5.38%.

  • Min Change Category: Lenses with -0.82%.

  • The combined average of all categories for this quarter was 1.58%.

• Q2 2022:

  • Max Change Category: Contacts with 4.75%.

  • Min Change Category: Lenses with -3.79%.

  • The combined average of all categories for this quarter was -0.10%.

• Q3 2022:

  • Max Change Category: Exams with 2.88%.

  • Min Change Category: Lenses with -0.51%.

  • The combined average of all categories for this quarter was 0.68%.

• Q4 2022:

  • Max Change Category: Exams with 1.91%

  • Min Change Category: Frames with -1.19%.

  • The combined average of all categories for this quarter was 0.43%.

• Q1 2023:

  • Max Change Category: Exams with 6.89%.

  • Min Change Category: Frames with 4.07%.

  • The combined average of all categories for this quarter was 5.14%.

• Q2 2023:

  • Max Change Category: Exams with 5.60%.

  • Min Change Category: Frames with 2.25%.

  • The combined average of all categories for this quarter was 3.47%.

• Q3 2023:

  • Max Change Category: Exams with 1.34%.

  • Min Change Category: Contacts with -2.03%.

  • The combined average of all categories for this quarter was -0.24%.

Forecast:

Reviewing the historic data, we built a forecast data from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024 with these predictions:

• Exams: The percentage change in exams is expected to increase steadily, with an average change of 5.92% during the forecast phase.

• Contacts: The percentage change in contacts is expected to fluctuate, with two quarters of negative change. The average change for this category during the forecast phase is -0.36%.

• Frames: The percentage change in frames is expected to recover from the negative trend seen in the historic data, with an average change of 1.34% during the forecast phase.

• Lenses: The percentage change in lenses is also expected to recover, with an average change of 2.03% during the forecast phase.

The combined average of all categories by quarter shows a recovery from the negative trend seen in the historic data, with a peak in Q1 2024, especially for exams and lenses.

Comment

Please note that these calculations are based on this historic sample and actual results may vary based on other factors not included within this data set.

By applying these forecasts in your planning and operations, you can be better positioned to navigate the ups and downs ahead. Whether it’s investing in new technologies, expanding service offerings, or adjusting pricing strategies, these forecasts provide valuable insights that can drive decision-making and ultimately contribute to a successful 2024.